World Cup props

[achandicap]

I've seen some varied threads with individual props, so here's a list of the props I played today for the World Cup. I don't profess to be an expert in soccer, but I've done enough studying to think these are pretty good bets for the price. All bets and odds were found at Pinnacle. Number in parathesis are number of units bet.

Paraguay OVER 4.5 points in group +175 (3)
Ivory Coast OVER 3 points in group +109 (2)
Italy OVER 9 goals in tournament +166 (2)
Brazil OVER 12.5 goals in tournament +132 (5)
France OVER 9 goals in tournament +123 (3)
USA to Round of 16 +182 (3)
Paraguay to quarterfinals +731 (1)
Italy to final +402 (1)

My reasoning:

I think Paraguay can advance from Group B just as well as England or Sweden, and they are the best price. If they win Group B, they will play either Poland or Ecuador, which are both very beatable. If they finish second, they play Germany, which some critics say isn't tbe best team the country has put forward lately.

Everyone is starting to talk about how good the Ivory Coast is. African teams surprise in the World Cup, and this seems to be the most likely team to be Africa's team. All they need is a win and a tie in a very balanced group.

The three OVER goals for the tournament simply assume a long run through the second round. Brazil seems a no-brainer. I can see them getting 13 goals even if they lose in the first round. The Italy tally will be a bit tough considering their group, but if they get to the final as I expect they should reach at least 9 goals. France, in a weak group, could get that total in group play.

The USA bet is simple: The Czech team is a bit overrated and the USA is underrated. All they have to do is finish second in this group, and at +182, it's a great price.

Thoughts, or your prop plays?

 

[trytrytry]

Brazil OVER 12.5 goals in tournament +132 (5)
i like this one under for some reason I think they might get some 1-0 1-1 type of games early

 

[SubZaero]

Agree with everything but Paraguay's bets. They are not strong enough IMO.

 

[JamesHunt]

Agreed, +175 not enough for Paraguay 5+ pts. You'd be better off just backing them in their matches against England and Sweden. Good value to be had betting against England of course. Not really good enough odds on Italy either. Try 11/1 each-way with Premierbet.

 

[JamesHunt]

My concern about the goals overs is that nowadays teams don't tend to score loads of extra goals just to humiliate the opposition. Get 2-0 ahead then take it easy is the modern way.

And the knock-out stages are notoriously low-scoring.

By the way check with your bookie whether any "golden goal" in extra time counts for this prop. There are grading disputes every championship on this point.

 

[fhmesq44]

My concern about the goals overs is that nowadays teams don't tend to score loads of extra goals just to humiliate the opposition. Get 2-0 ahead then take it easy is the modern way.

And the knock-out stages are notoriously low-scoring.

By the way check with your bookie whether any "golden goal" in extra time counts for this prop. There are grading disputes every championship on this point.

There are no golden goals any more. They play the entire 30 minutes of extra time if there is a tie. I don't see why they wouldn't count, but it probably wouldn't hurt to confirm. They are goals in the context of play, as opposed to Pks to decide the game.

 

[JamesHunt]

Wow I never realized about the golden goal! Well I haven't been betting any silly props.

"90 minute only" is standard in soccer betting. The extra-time goals wouldn't count with the spread (contract for difference) books. We're agreed - best check.

 

[acw]

James,

You make things too complicated.
Many books will have rules a la TheGreek.
The way it works is as follow:
If you bet Under and the match goes into extra time, then the extra time counts. And when you bet Over, it is only the 90 minutes.

 

[achandicap]

Those goal totals do include extra time and own goals, but not shootout goals. Pinnacle was very clear about that.

I see the concern about low scoring games, but for the last four World Cups everyone starts out concerned about low totals and every time there's a 4-0 or 5-1 mauling of some Arabic or African country.

Brazil plays Australia and Japan, which are forward-thinking teams, so those games ought to see four, maybe five goals each. I see a lot of goals in Group G (France), what with Switzerland, Togo and South Korea invloved. Pinnacle set a total goals for group play at 127, which means roughly 2.75 goals a game or 8.25 for three games. In group play, I have Brazil's games having 14 goals, France's 10 and Italy's 7. That's not asking much from three elite countries.

 

[fhmesq44]

Those goal totals do include extra time and own goals, but not shootout goals. Pinnacle was very clear about that.

I see the concern about low scoring games, but for the last four World Cups everyone starts out concerned about low totals and every time there's a 4-0 or 5-1 mauling of some Arabic or African country.

Brazil plays Australia and Japan, which are forward-thinking teams, so those games ought to see four, maybe five goals each. I see a lot of goals in Group G (France), what with Switzerland, Togo and South Korea invloved. Pinnacle set a total goals for group play at 127, which means roughly 2.75 goals a game or 8.25 for three games. In group play, I have Brazil's games having 14 goals, France's 10 and Italy's 7. That's not asking much from three elite countries.

Aussie's can score but can't play D, Japan is the opposite. But Brazil should hang 5 or 6 combined against those two easily. France can't score, I would avoid their over.

 

[RapStar]

Brazil won't get 13 goals in it's group. That's averaging over four goals per game. NO SHOT. I only like the over if they reach the final.

 

[fhmesq44]

It is 13 in the entire tourney, entirely feasible but no guarantee. Last WC they had 11 in group play and 18 total.

 

[achandicap]

What I meant was that I see 14 goals being scored by both teams in Brazil's first three games, so there will be a lot of scoring involved. I see Brazil scoring 11 of those 14, so all they have to do is score 2 more in the second round. Entirely feasible.

Then again, that's why we're betting. We'll see in a month.

 

[achandicap]

I just saw something in the first game that makes me think we could have a trend. The ESPN GameCast commentary mentioned numerous times that the ball is making some tricky moves in the air. Players who used the ball prior to the World Cup said the same thing. This is bad news for goalkeepers. I see some high-scoring games this World Cup, and because the World Cup is usually seen as low-scoring, we can get some decent odds. With that:

Poland/Ecuador OVER 2 and 2.5 +124 (4 units--out of 5)

I hit on Germany -1.5 (-124) at 2.5 units in the opener, but there's no use bragging since I'm just posting it now.

 

[achandicap]

For Saturday morning:

England/Paraguay OVER 2 & 2.5 +114 (2)
Paraguay SU/England +600 (1)
Paraguay/England tie +266 (1)

Projecting a 2-1 Paraguay win or a 2-2 tie.

 

[achandicap]

Paraguay didn't do much for me. Let's try Sweden -1.5 & 2 (-109) for 3 units.

 

[achandicap]

Adding:

Ivory Coast +.5 & 1 (-113)/Argentina (2 units)
Ivory Coast/Argentina U2 (1 unit)

 

[achandicap]

Bad start so far, but it's early and I'm betting dogs so the comeback shouldn't take long.

1-8-2, -8.5 units, -89.84

 

[achandicap]

Another day:

Holland/Serbia Draw +220 (1)
Holland/Serbia U2 & 2.5 (2)

 

[achandicap]

Mexico/Iran OVER 2.5 +126 (2)